Trumporally continues to gain momentum

On 11 November, world stock indices show predominantly bullish dynamics.

On Thursday, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5-4.75% per annum.

The head of the regulator Jerome Powell said during a press conference that he does not rule out another rate cut in December, but also leaves open the possibility that the Fed will pause in easing monetary policy at this meeting.

This week, the main macroeconomic events in the States will be the release of the following data:

Core inflation (m/m and y/y) for October (13 November);
Core Producer Price Index (m/m) for October (14 November);
Initial jobless claims last week (14 October);
Industrial Production in October (15 November);
Retail Sales in October (15 November).

On the corporate front, investors will be watching quarterly reports from major companies such as Home Depot, Tyson Foods, Disney, Applied Materials and many others.
As of 12:00 MSC, the European Stoxx 600 is up 1.00% and the S&P 500 futures are up 0.26%. US 10-year Treasury yields are up 4 bps at 4.346%. China’s CSI 300 index is up 0.66% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is down 1.45%. Brent crude oil futures are down 0.09%. The MosBirch index and the dollar RTS index are both up 1.63%.
Expedia Group share prices rose by 3.81%. The online travel holding company increased its net profit 2.2 times in July-September and also raised its annual booking forecast.
Airbnb shares fell 8.68 per cent. The accommodation booking service cut its net profit by 69% in Q3.

Pinterest’s capitalisation fell by 14%. The owner of the popular online visual bookmarking service increased net profit 4.6 times in July-September, but gave a weak outlook for the current quarter.

The capitalisation of Apple, whose shares are part of the ‘US. Balanced’, were up 0.23%.

China’s consumer prices (CPI) rose 0.3% year-over-year in October. The country’s inflation was recorded for the ninth consecutive month, but the pace of price rises last month was the slowest since June. Analysts on average had forecast a 0.4 per cent rise, the same as in September.

Producer prices (PPI) fell 2.9% year-on-year last month, following a 2.8% decline a month earlier. The fall was the biggest since November 2023. Meanwhile, the country’s manufacturing deflation marks the 25th consecutive month of deflation. The consensus forecast suggested a 2.5% decline in PPI.

The list of leaders of fall in the Hang Seng is headed by securities of Longfor Group Holdings, which fell in price by 5.1%. The market value of China Resources Beer (Holdings) fell by 4.62%, China Life Insurance by 4.02%.
The Russian market started the week with a continuation of last week’s rise, the main reason for which is the expectation of improvement in the geopolitical situation with the arrival of Trump. It is important to note that we should not expect sanctions to be lifted, at least in the near future, so market expectations of Trump’s presidency may change over time
In the leaders of growth today are Unipro (+5.88%), VUSH Holding (+3.85%), OVK (+2.87%). In the leaders of the fall are Samolet (-1.74%), PIK (-2.57%), Polyus (-1.30%).

Technical picture

MosBirch Index

The index is below the resistance level of 2800 points. Breaking through this level may lead to growth up to 2900 points.

S&P 500

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 has reached our designated target of 5968 points (level of 1.618 on the Fibonacci line). Now there is overheating in quotes, so in the nearest future we may see a pullback to close the gap between the levels of 5778 and 5862 points.